In the 2007 film I am Legend, a genetically engineered virus designed to cure cancer mutates into a fatal airborne strain that spreads at an exponential pace worldwide, killing 90% of the world’s population in just three years. Only 12 million of the survivors have natural immunity, while the rest degenerated into aggressive and animalistic beings (zombies).
In 28 Days Later (2002), a rage virus infected almost all of Britain’s population in just 28 days. In its sequel, 28 Weeks Later (2007), the infected population of Britain die of starvation in 28 weeks. But the same virus quickly spread to mainland Europe.
Science fiction?
It’s science fiction, of course. But a pandemic that spreads at a phenomenal pace is not far from reality. Scientists say that if the avian flu virus H5N1 mutate into a form that is easily passed by humans, a pandemic could kill hundreds of millions of the world’s population.
Virtual pandemic
In 2006, a computer model revealed how H5N1 pandemic might spread across the United States. The researchers assumed 10 highly infectious cases of influenza in Los Angeles as a starting point. They then let the model begin the simulation from there. The simulation illustrated a shocking picture. It showed that the spread of the virus would peak in only 90 days with a hundred infections for every 1,000 residents - or just about the entire country.
The researchers attempted to map out possible scenarios if H5N1 is easily transmitted between humans. If it mutates into such strain, human deaths would be staggering. They said that vaccines for current strains would not be effective against future strains. Mike Leavitt, US Health and Human Services Secretary, said America is not ready for such scenario.
The variables
The simulation used census data and about 280 million synthetic people at home, work, school, and play. The researchers also used travel data from the Department of Transportation - these data were used to estimate how the virus would spread by air travel from one city to another.
The model also looked into probabilities of infected persons crossing paths with others. It also considered one disturbing aspect to the avian flu virus: About 33% of infected people don’t show signs they’re infected and can transmit the disease unknowingly.
Lessons learned
So what are the lessons learned from this virtual pandemic? Governments around the world and the scientific community must come up with an effective vaccine for emerging strains of avian flu virus
According to Ira Longini of the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, “Based on our results, combinations of mitigation strategies such as stockpiling vaccines or antiviral agents, along with social distancing measures could be particularly effective in slowing pandemic flu spread in the US.”
